MAGIC NUMBER
––crunching…Live MLB standings pulled straight from the league's public stats feed — then this page simulates the rest of the season 2,000 times in your browser to put a playoff probability on every team. Click any club for its WAR leaders, injury ward, remaining strength of schedule, and whether its record is telling the truth.
HOW THE SAUSAGE IS MADE
Playoff odds — 2,000 seasons before lunch
Every remaining game on the real schedule gets simulated with a log5 matchup model. Team strength is Pythagorean expectation (RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83)) regressed 45 games toward .500, because half a season still contains a lot of noise. Home teams get a +3.8% nudge. Division winners and three wild cards advance, 2,000 times over; the percentage is how often each club makes it. Ties are broken by coin flip — MLB uses head-to-head, but the coin doesn't change anyone's odds by much.
eWAR — an estimate that shows its work
The league feed has stat lines but not WAR, so this page computes a transparent stand-in. Hitters: (OPS − .615) × PA ÷ 42 — offense above a replacement-level bat, no defense or position adjustment. Pitchers: (4.20 − ERA) × IP ÷ 90 + IP ÷ 90 — run prevention plus a durability credit. It tracks real WAR closely enough to rank a roster; for gospel, see Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs.
Schedule difficulty & the luck audit
Remaining strength of schedule is the win percentage of every opponent still on the docket, weighted by games. The luck audit compares actual wins to Pythagorean wins: outscore the league and lose anyway, and you're due; the reverse means the regression fairy is coming. Injuries come from official transaction logs, so "right shoulder discomfort" is the league's phrasing, not mine.
Data: MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com), fetched live on page load — standings, schedule, 40-man rosters, and transactions. This is an unofficial fan project, not affiliated with or endorsed by MLB or its clubs. Odds are a toy model for arguments, not wagers. Team marks referenced by name only.